Fears of hottest year on record as global temperatures spike

Oliver Milman

Early data shows June temperatures hitting record highs ahead of El Niño that experts say will have significant heating effect

The cable car from Roosevelt Island to Manhattan last week, when haze from the Canadian wildfires shrouded New York. Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Global temperatures have accelerated to record-setting levels this month, an ominous sign in the climate crisis ahead of a gathering El Niño that could potentially propel 2023 to become the hottest year ever recorded.

Preliminary global average temperatures taken so far in June are nearly 1C (1.8F) above levels previously recorded for the same month, going back to 1979. While the month is not yet complete and may not set a new June record, climate scientists say it follows a pattern of strengthening global heating that could see this year named the hottest ever recorded, topping 2016.

There has been “remarkable global warmth” so far in June, confirmed Copernicus, the European Union’s Earth observation arm, which said that the first few days of the month even breached a 1.5C increase compared with pre-industrial times. This is probably the first time this has happened since industrialization, the agency said.

The long-term warming conditions caused by the burning of fossil fuels will probably receive a further pulse of heat via El Niño, a naturally recurring phenomenon where sections of the Pacific Ocean heat up, typically causing temperatures to spike across the world.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said El Niño conditions are now present and will “gradually strengthen” into early next year. Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, said human-caused warming will be exacerbated by an event that typically adds between 0.1C to 0.2C (0.18F to 0.36F) to the overall global temperature.

“The global surface temperature anomaly is at or near record levels right now, and 2023 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record,” said Mann. “That is likely to be true for just about every El Niño year in the future as well, as long we continue to warm the planet with fossil fuel burning and carbon pollution.”

Mika Rantanen, a Finnish meteorologist, said that the spiking heat so far this month was “extraordinary” and that it was “pretty certain” it would result in a record warm June.

This year has already seen severe, record heatwaves roil places from Puerto Rico to Siberia to Spain, while blistering heat in Canada helped spur huge wildfires that blotted the skies above New York City and Washington with toxic smoke last week.

According to an update issued by Noaa on Wednesday, the world had its third warmest May in a 174-year temperature record last month, with North America and South America both having their hottest May ever recorded.

Noaa is more circumspect about the prospects of an annual heat record in 2023, placing the odds at about 12%, but has said it is almost certain the year will rank in the top 10 warmest and is very likely to be in the top five.

In May, the World Meteorological Organization warned that global temperatures will probably soar over the next five years, fueled by El Niño as well as emissions, with a new record hot year almost guaranteed during this period.

There is also a good chance the average temperature will exceed 1.5C (2.7F) beyond pre-industrial times, a key threshold agreed by governments at which point heatwaves, droughts, flooding and other climate impacts become significantly worse.

While people are feeling the heat on land, an even more remarkable burst of warmth is occurring in the seas, with Noaa confirming a second consecutive month of record high ocean surface temperatures in May. Excess heat in the oceans, which cover 70% of the globe’s surface, influence overall global temperatures, as well as warp fish populations, bleach coral reefs and drive coastal sea level rise.

“The oceans have been warming steadily but we are now seeing record temperatures which is certainly alarming given we are expecting El Niño to strengthen,” said Ellen Bartow-Gillies, a climate scientist at Noaa. “That will undoubtedly have an impact on the rest of the world.”

Bartow-Gillies said Noaa had not yet processed its temperature data for June but that it appeared the elevated heat will continue this month, although El Niño will not be a major factor until later in the year. “We are off to a pretty warm start to the year, it’s not unprecedented, but we could be getting even warmer due to El Niño,” she said.

Regardless of whether 2023 ends up the hottest ever recorded, scientists caution that the escalating impacts of the climate crisis are now starkly evident and will not be slowed until greenhouse gas emissions are radically cut.

“Without stronger emission cuts, the changes we are seeing are just the start of the adverse impacts we can expect to see,” said Natalie Mahowald, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University. “This year and the extreme events we have seen so far should serve as a warning.”

New UN report reveals chronic bias against women over last decade

UN NEWS

“Half of people worldwide still believe men make better political leaders than women, and more than 40 per cent believe men make better business executives than women,” according to the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in its latest Gender Social Norms Index (GSNI) report.

“Social norms that impair women’s rights are detrimental to society more broadly, dampening the expansion of human development,” said Pedro Conceição, head of UNDP’s Human Development Report Office.

New @UNDP report shows no progress in level of bias against women:

➡️ 50% believe men make better political leaders
➡️ 40% believe men make better business executives
➡️ 25% believe it is justified for a man to beat his wife

📰 Read our full story here: https://t.co/HkjWhoEm0q pic.twitter.com/97zgaHTSA5

— UN News (@UN_News_Centre) June 12, 2023

The more things change

A staggering 25 per cent of people believe it is justified for a man to beat his wife, according to the report, reflecting the latest data from the World Values Survey.

The report argues that these biases drive hurdles faced by women, manifested in a dismantling of women’s rights in many parts of the world with movements against gender equality gaining traction and, in some countries, a surge of human rights violations.

Biases are also reflected in the severe underrepresentation of women in leadership. On average, the share of women as heads of State or heads of government has remained around 10 per cent since 1995 and in the labour market women occupy less than a third of managerial positions.

Broken links in progress

The report also sheds light on a broken link between women’s progress in education and economic empowerment. Women are more skilled and educated than ever before, yet even in the 59 countries where women are now more educated than men, the average gender income gap remains a 39 per cent in favour of men.

“Lack of progress on gender social norms is unfolding against a human development crisis,” Mr. Conceição said, noting that the global Human Development Index (HDI) declined in 2020 for the first time on record and again the following year.

“Everyone stands to gain from ensuring freedom and agency for women,” he added.

Governments’ crucial role

United Nations I SDG Goal 5: Gender Equality

The UNDP report emphasized that governments have a crucial role in shifting gender social norms, from adopting parental leave policies, that have changed perceptions around care work responsibilities, to labour market reforms that have led to a change in beliefs around women in the workforce.

“An important place to start is recognizing the economic value of unpaid care work,” said Raquel Lagunas, Director of UNDP’s gender team.

“This can be a very effective way of challenging gender norms around how care work is viewed. In countries with the highest levels of gender biases against women, it is estimated that women spend over six times as much time as men on unpaid care work.”

Change can happen

The report emphasized that despite the continued prevalence of bias against women, the data shows change can happen.

An increase in the share of people with no bias in any indicator was evident in 27 of the 38 countries surveyed. The report authors said that to drive change towards greater gender equality, the focus needs to be on expanding human development through investment, insurance, and innovation.

This includes investing in laws and policy measures that promote women’s equality in political participation, scaling up insurance mechanisms, such as strengthening social protection and care systems, and encouraging innovative interventions that could be particularly effective in challenging harmful social norms, patriarchal attitudes, and gender stereotypes.

For example, combatting online hate speech and gender disinformation can help to shift pervasive gender norms towards greater acceptance and equality, according to the report.

The report recommended directly addressing social norms through education to change people’s views, policies and legal changes that recognize the rights of women in all spheres of life, and more representation in decision-making and political processes.

Going Green – A World Environment Day Chat with Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu and Aspire Power Solutions

Team Aspire

Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu, is an environmental microbiologist and a published author, currently serving as a Vanguard Fellow at the University of Birmingham, where she focuses her research on the net-zero energy transition, a critical area in sustainability. As a director of The Green Institute, she is passionate about cultivating the next generation of sustainable leaders through education, advocacy, and innovation.

Team Aspire: What sparked your passion for the work you do?

Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu: I grew up in a rural town in Nigeria, and was fortunate to be surrounded by the beauty of nature while witnessing my parents’ love for planting. I was in touch with nature from a young age and knew that this was a path I want to explore.  A memorable day for me was when I was 9 or 10, and found a bird that had fallen from its nest due to a storm. We took it home and cared for it till it was strong enough to fly off. This left an incredible mark on me, and I was reminded of the delicate balance of life and the profound impact it can have on people around us. 

TA: What do you think are some of the notable environmental challenges we face globally?

Dr AA: I think one of the most significant global environmental challenges is climate change. Going by research that was done by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperature has already risen by one degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, so what we’re experiencing right now is more frequent spring weather events such as hurricanes and drought.

Biodiversity loss is another critical challenge that we face. For instance, Wildlife Fund estimated that we’ve lost about 60% of the world’s wildlife population in just over four decades, and this decline from a scientific perspective shows the stability, resistance and resilience of the ecosystem. Humans are what we call heterotrophic organisms because we depend on other organisms to feed. Only plants manufacture their own food, so if biodiversity is a threat and things aren’t working as they should, humans will not even have the food to eat. 

Right now, the Global Food Pre Network reports that we’re currently consuming resources 1.75 times faster than the capacity we’re regenerating them. This overconsumption however leads to deforestation and habitat destruction, and this further exacerbates the environmental challenges that we face. 

TA: Bringing it back home to Nigeria, what would you say is the remedy for the environmental challenges we face?

Dr AA: We have to solve it from a multifaceted approach, but the solution is education. Environmental education should be integrated into the formal education system, from primary school to tertiary, and the younger generation needs to be equipped with an understanding of environmental issues and the importance of conservation. We also need to collaborate with other organizations and leverage their expertise and networks to drive positive change and innovation.

TA: How do we get more individuals interested in this conversation?

Dr AA: In 2013, I took up a job in a community college, and discovered that in my class of over 250 students, none of them knew what it meant to Go Green. I had to create manuals that gave a theoretical explanation and with the participation of the school Provost who agreed to support the campaign to Go Green by using a bicycle to come to school instead of driving with his car, we were able to also teach practicality. It got everyone talking, and more people got involved. Essentially, people need to be educated and shown practical ways to get started. Also, incentives always work, so make people see the reason why they should care and put an incentive to it.

TA: What is the impact of most Nigerians owning generators to power their homes, and what would you recommend as a safer, cleaner and more sustainable alternative for generating power?

Dr AA: Personally, I use Solar 24/7, and I won’t say I’m enjoying all its full benefits because my neighbours still use very big generators to power their houses, and I still have to deal with noise pollution. The Government needs to come up with a ‘cap and trade system’ that offers economic incentives to reduce emission and promote renewable energy transition because the carbon monoxide that is emitted from generators are not good for the environment and our wellbeing.  

We also need to fund research in renewable energy because Nigeria as a country is very close to the equator, and that means we have an abundance of sunlight. We also have wind in the north and hydro, all of which can be alternative sources of energy. When we fund research generally, people learn how to harness all these renewable sources of energy that are available to us and ensure that power becomes accessible and affordable for every citizen.

Investing in solar might be expensive, but in the long run I think it’s better because after calculating your expenses on fuel in a year, you realize that having a solar system might just be more cost-effective in the long run.

TA: Explain the term “Carbon Footprint” in layman’s words, and what impact does it have on the environment?

Dr AA: This is the amount of CO2 that is released into the atmosphere as a result of human activities like burning fossil fuels, deforestation, transportation, agriculture etc. These things affect the greenhouse gasses that are trapped in the atmosphere and the effect is what we now see as climate change or global warming because the ozone layer which is what protects us from the direct rays of the sun then becomes depleted. Right now, you can’t predict the weather patterns any more. It can rain heavily today and shine so bright tomorrow. That is the effect of what we have.

Emissions affect our health because there are diseases that are related to this wave. There is also air pollution because, during oil exploration, the atmosphere becomes pregnant with combustion activities and exacerbates respiratory conditions such as asthma, which is very common in our community and can lead to cardiovascular problems. When you have flooding caused by climate change, the parasite from vector-borne diseases like malaria breed and multiply. From an economic perspective, when you have a natural disaster, it results in property damage and a lot of disruptions in industries such as agriculture, tourism, and even insurance. These factors will ultimately impact us economically, leading to an increased cost of living. 

The solution, however, is transitioning to cleaner and renewable sources of energy. We need to implement more sustainable practices and promote energy efficiency. We also need to adopt a climate resilience strategy, and even though we might not be able to replicate it completely, we can minimize the adverse consequences of climate change and ensure that we create a sustainable future, not just for ourselves, but for our children and generations to come. 

TA: Can you tell us something cool about the environment that is not common knowledge?

Dr AA: Trees communicate with each other the way we communicate with ourselves, which I think is pretty cool. They have an underground network called the “mycorrhizal network”, and with this, they’re able to communicate and extend nutrients and water. They’re even able to warn themselves against pests or threats. I think it’s incredible because it’s not just a system of communication, but also a way to offer mutual support.

World off track for reaching key goal on sustainable energy by 2030

UN NEWS

The world is not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7, designed to ensure access to affordable, reliable energy for all, a new report from the UN and partners revealed on Monday.

Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report, from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the UN Statistics Division (UNSD), the World Bank, and the World Health Organization (WHO), warns that current efforts are not enough to achieve the SDG 7 on time.

There has been some progress on specific elements of the drive to reach SDG 7 – for example, the increased rate of using renewables in the power sector – but progress is insufficient to reach the targets set forth, in time for the 2030 deadline.

SDG 7 is to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy. The goal includes reaching universal access to electricity and clean cooking, doubling historic levels of efficiency improvements, and substantially increasing the share of renewables in the global energy mix, said the report authors.

Big benefits reaching SDG 7

Reaching the goal, will have a deep and positive impact on people’s health and well-being, helping to protect them from environmental and social risks such as air pollution, and expanding access to primary health care and services.

The global energy crisis, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, is expected to stimulate the deployment of renewables and improve energy efficiency, as some governments boost investment.

However, IRENA estimates show that international public financial flows in support of clean energy in low and middle-income countries have been decreasing since before the COVID-19 pandemic and funding is limited to a small number of countries. To meet SDG 7 targets, it is going to be necessary to structurally reform international public finance and define new opportunities to unlock investments, the authors said.

The report also finds that mounting debt and rising energy prices are worsening the outlook for reaching universal access to clean cooking and electricity.

Alan Santos/PR

More than 80 per cent of the electricity used in Brazil comes from renewable sources.

Falling short

Current projections estimate that 1.9 billion people will be without clean cooking facilities, and 660 million without electricity access in 2030 if the status quo continues.

These gaps will negatively impact the health of our most vulnerable populations and accelerate climate change, says the report.

According to WHO, 3.2 million people die each year from illness caused by the use of polluting fuels and technologies, which increase exposure to toxic levels of household air pollution.

Protect the next generation

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the WHO, said: “We must protect the next generation by acting now. Investing in clean and renewable solutions to support universal energy access is how we can make real change. Clean cooking technologies in homes and reliable electricity in healthcare facilities, can play a crucial role in protecting the health of our most vulnerable populations.”

Stefan Schweinfest, of the UN Statistics Division, said that despite a recent slowdown in electrification figures, the number of people without electricity almost halved over the past decade, from 1.1 billion, in 2010 down to 675 million in 2021.

"Nonetheless, additional efforts and measures must urgently be put in place to ensure that the poorest and hardest-to-reach people are not left behind. To reach universal access by 2030, the development community must scale up clean energy investments and policy support.”

Cop28 president’s team accused of Wikipedia ‘greenwashing’

Exclusive: UAE using site to ‘control narrative’ amid criticism of oil boss leading climate summit, say critics

Sultan Al Jaber, the Cop28 president, is the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. Photograph: Karim Sahib/AFP/Getty Images

The Cop28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, has been accused of attempting to “greenwash” his image after it emerged that members of his team had edited Wikipedia pages that highlighted his role as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc).

Work by Al Jaber’s team on his and the climate summit’s Wikipedia entries include adding a quote from an editorial that said Al Jaber – the United Arab Emirates minister for industry and advanced technology – was “precisely the kind of ally the climate movement needs”. They also suggested that editors remove reference to a multibillion-dollar oil pipeline deal he signed in 2019, the Centre for Climate Reporting and the Guardian can reveal.

“Oil companies and their CEOs are taking greenwash to a whole new level – seizing control of global climate conferences, then getting their own employees to airbrush out criticism of their blatant hypocrisy on Wikipedia,” said Caroline Lucas, the Green party MP.

The UAE government, which controls about 6% of the world’s oil reserves, has been criticised for appointing a fossil fuel boss as head of Cop28, which will be held in Dubai in November. Last week, 130 US and EU lawmakers called on Al Jaber to be removed from his post as the summit’s president.

Meanwhile, Al Jaber has been working with major consultancy firms and PR agencies to promote his work as an advocate for Emirati investment in green energy. His appointment as Cop28 president was welcomed by the likes of John Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate, and other key figures in international climate diplomacy.

Pointing to Al Jaber’s work on climate issues over the past decade, a spokesperson for Cop28 said: “We will continue to ensure that all publicly available sources of information about the presidency and its leadership remain factually accurate and up to date.”

Al Jaber’s role as both CEO of Adnoc and Cop28 president is at the centre of the controversy. The company is forging a major expansion of the UAE’s fossil fuel output despite the International Energy Agency having said there must be no new oil and gas projects if the world is to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. A series of edits to Al Jaber’s Wikipedia page since March last year reveal the extent to which his team has tried to control public perception of his record in the fossil fuel industry.

A Wikipedia user, whose identity is unknown but who disclosed they were being paid by Adnoc, suggested editors remove the reference to a $4bn agreement Al Jaber signed in 2019 with US investment giants BlackRock and KKR for the development of oil pipeline infrastructure. The user said there was “too much detail” and suggested the page say that Al Jaber had simply attracted “international investment” in Adnoc.

The user also recommended that editors delete a quote from the Financial Times which highlighted the dissonance between Al Jaber’s role as the UAE’s climate tsar and his driving of Adnoc’s fossil fuel expansion. Instead, they suggested that the page note the company was using the revenues from this increased oil output to “invest in carbon capture and green fuel technologies”.

In this case, only some of the changes they suggested were actually added to Al Jaber’s Wikipedia page.

“Well sourced material that includes pertinent information (even if it’s a little more detail than ideally the company would like to see shared in an article) would always be retained,” an editor told the user.

A spokesperson for Adnoc said: “We are very proud of Dr Sultan’s achievements as a global energy leader and regularly review content to ensure accuracy. Update requests were submitted to Wikipedia in the spring and summer of 2022, which were fully transparent and compliant as per Wikipedia’s guidelines.”

More recently, a member of the Cop28 team has been directly editing Wikipedia articles, despite having been “strongly discouraged” from doing so by one of the website’s volunteer administrators.

In February, a user going by the alias Junktuner made a number of edits to the climate summit’s Wikipedia page. The Cop28 team confirmed that its head of marketing, Ramzi Haddad, who uses the same handle on Twitter, owns the Junktuner account. Haddad only disclosed his ties to Al Jaber after being questioned by an administrator.

The US senator Sheldon Whitehouse, who led last week for Al Jaber to be replaced as the summit’s president, said: “It’s not surprising that Cop28 is trying to burnish Al Jaber’s green credentials, but the fact remains that as an oil executive he is also overseeing a lot of damage to the planet.”

Whitehouse called on the UN, which oversees the Cop process, to “rethink how to run these very important forums” to avoid undue influence by the fossil fuel industry.

The climate summit’s Wikipedia page includes a quote from Amnesty International saying: “[Sultan Al Jaber] cannot be an honest broker for climate talks when the company he leads is planning to cause more climate damage.” Beneath it, Haddad added a quote from a Bloomberg editorial which stated that “Al Jaber is precisely the kind of ally the climate movement needs”. He has also added links to Al Jaber’s website and social media accounts.

The administrator wrote to Haddad: “The nature of your edits, such as the one you made to 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, gives the impression you have an undisclosed financial stake in promoting a topic.

“Paid advocates are very strongly discouraged from direct article editing.”

Despite later disclosing his conflict of interest and saying he would “refrain from further edits”, Haddad has continued to make minor changes to Wikipedia pages.

It has also come to light that Haddad made a series of edits anonymously – where only an IP address is visible – before he was “aware of the proper conflict of interest procedures”. Haddad revealed the information in response to more questions from the Wikipedia administrator after the Centre for Climate Reporting contacted the administrator.

Haddad also promoted Al Jaber’s green credentials anonymously. He added to Al Jaber’s Wikipedia page that he was “the first CEO to ever serve as Cop president, having played a key role in shaping the country’s clean energy pathway”.

A Cop28 spokesperson said: “Cop28 has and will continue to ensure online descriptions of the Cop28 presidency are accurate across all online platforms, including Wikipedia.” They added that the changes were “all evidence based”.

Edits have also been made by a user being paid by Masdar, the UAE government-owned clean energy company of which Al Jaber was formerly CEO and is now chairman of the board. They worked to make Al Jaber’s role at Masdar more prominent on his page the day after the Guardian revealed his appointment as Cop28 president in January. They added that Al Jaber’s “goal is to expand Masdar’s clean energy capacity to 100GW by 2030, making it the second largest renewable investor in the world”. Masdar did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Marwa Fatafta, who leads work in the Middle East by the digital rights group Access Now, said the “alarming” revelations were part of broader attempts by the UAE to “control the narrative” and “polish up the image of Al Jaber”.

“Once he was appointed, there was pushback,” she said. “And I think these criticisms will be amplified further and further as we get closer to Cop28, so I see it as a preemptive step to try and control and shape the narrative as much as they can.”

Climate: 'dangerous heat' could afflict billions by 2100

Current policies to limit global warming will expose more than a fifth of humanity to extreme and potentially life-threatening heat by century's end, researchers warned Monday.

Earth's surface is on track to warm 2.7 degrees Celsius above 19th-C levels by 2100, exposing more than two billion people to dangerous heat, according to a new study © Damien MEYER / AFP/File

Earth's surface temperature is on track to rise 2.7 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100, pushing more than two billion people -- 22 percent of projected global population -- well outside the climate comfort zone that has allowed our species to thrive for millennia, the scientists reported in Nature Sustainability.

The countries with the highest number of people facing deadly heat in this scenario are India (600 million), Nigeria (300 million), Indonesia (100 million), as well as the Philippines and Pakistan (80 million each).

"That's a profound reshaping of the habitability of the surface of the planet, and could lead potentially to the large-scale reorganisation of where people live," said lead author Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

Capping global warming at the 2015 Paris climate treaty target of 1.5C would sharply reduce the number of those at risk to less than half-a-billion, some five percent of the 9.5 billion people likely to inhabit the planet six or seven decades from now, according to the findings.

Just under 1.2C of warming to date has already amplified the intensity or duration of heatwaves, droughts and wildfires beyond what could have occurred absent the carbon pollution generated by burning fossil fuels and forests. The last eight years were the hottest on record.

"The costs of global warming are often expressed in financial terms, but our study highlights the phenomenal human cost of failing to tackle the climate emergency," said Lenton.

"For every 0.1C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat."

Profoundly unjust

The threshold for "dangerous heat" used in the new findings is a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 29C.

Across history, human communities have been densest around two distinct MATs -- 13C (in temperate zones) and to a lesser extent 27C (in more tropical climes).

Global warming is pushing up the thermostat everywhere, but the risk of tipping into lethal heat is clearly higher in regions already close to the 29C red line.

Sustained high temperatures at or beyond that threshold, studies have shown, are strongly linked to greater mortality, reduced labour productivity and crop yields, along with more conflict and infectious disease.

As recently as 40 years ago, only 12 million people worldwide were exposed to such extremes.

That number has today increased five-fold, and will climb ever more steeply in coming decades, the study found.

The risk is accentuated in regions straddling the equator, where human populations are expanding most rapidly: tropical climes can become deadly even at lower temperatures when high humidity prevents the body from cooling itself through sweating.

Temperatures at or beyond the 29C red line are strongly linked to greater mortality, reduced labour productivity and crop yields, along with more conflict and disease © CHAIDEER MAHYUDDIN / AFP/File

Episodes of extreme humid heat have doubled since 1979.

Those most exposed to extreme heat live mostly in poorer countries with the smallest per capita carbon footprints, the authors say.

According to the World Bank, India emits on average about two tonnes of CO2 per person every year and Nigerians about half-a-tonne annually, compared to less than seven tonnes per person in the European Union and 15 in the United States.

Carbon-cutting pledges by governments and companies not yet translated into action would stop the rise in global temperatures at -- or even below -- 2C, allowing hundreds of millions to avoid catastrophic heat.

But scenarios even worse than the 2.7C world that would result from current policies cannot be excluded either, the authors warn.

If past and continuing emissions trigger the release of natural carbon stores, such as in permafrost, or warm the atmosphere more than anticipated, temperatures could climb nearly four degrees above mid-19th century levels, they said.

Focus on Global South for circular economy success, says report

International Labour Organization

Currently, 84% of research into decent work and the circular economy focuses on countries in the Global North, missing the main area of potential for change.

The transition to a circular economy is being held up by a lack of research in developing countries, where the vast majority of waste management and recycling jobs are located, says a report from the International Labour Organization, the Solutions for Youth Employment (S4YE) Programme at the World Bank, and Circle Economy — a non-governmental organisation that promotes sustainable development and the circular economy.

The report, Decent Work in the Circular Economy: An Overview of the Existing Evidence Base, says that current research fails to fully address the impact circular economy interventions have on people in countries in the Global South, atypical workers, women, migrants, youth and vulnerable populations.

The report finds that 84% of research into decent work and the circular economy focuses on countries in the Global North. Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa were the least represented regions – despite the fact that most circular economy activities are now located in the Global South.

"There is no doubt that a circular economy can help us reach our climate goals. However, the links between circularity and the achievement of social and economic progress remain overlooked. The shift towards a more circular economy offers significant opportunities for the world of work, such as the creation of new jobs and sustainable enterprises," said Alette van Leur, director of the sectoral policies department of the ILO.

Representing the first output under the ‘Jobs in the Circular Economy’ initiative  of the ILO, Circle Economy, and S4YE, the report calls for more in-depth research on decent work and the circular economy, focusing on the Global South, informal workers, the quality of jobs and supply chains. Joint advocacy and data partnerships are also needed, it says, to close knowledge gaps, including links to related issues such as climate justice and women’s empowerment.

Atmospheric research provides clear evidence of human-caused climate change signal associated with CO2 increases

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Claims that climate change is natural are inconsistent with atmospheric temperature trends

New research provides clear evidence of a human "fingerprint" on climate change and shows that specific signals from human activities have altered the temperature structure of Earth's atmosphere.

Differences between tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature trends have long been recognized as a fingerprint of human effects on climate. This fingerprint, however, neglected information from the mid to upper stratosphere, 25 to 50 kilometers above the Earth's surface.

"Including this information improves the detectability of a human fingerprint by a factor of five. Enhanced detectability occurs because the mid to upper stratosphere has a large cooling signal from human-caused CO2 increases, small noise levels of natural internal variability, and differing signal and noise patterns," according to the journal article, "Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). Noise in the troposphere can include day-to-day weather, interannual variability arising from El Niños and La Niñas, and longer-term natural fluctuations in climate. In the upper stratosphere, the noise of variability is smaller, and the human-caused climate change signal is larger, so the signal can be much more easily distinguished.

"Extending fingerprinting to the upper stratosphere with long temperature records and improved climate models means that it is now virtually impossible for natural causes to explain satellite-measured trends in the thermal structure of the Earth's atmosphere," the paper states.

"This is the clearest evidence there is of a human-caused climate change signal associated with CO2 increases," according to lead author Benjamin Santer, an adjunct scientist in the Physical Oceanography Department at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) in Massachusetts.

"This research undercuts and rebuts claims that recent atmospheric and surface temperature changes are natural, whether due to the Sun or due to internal cycles in the climate system. A natural explanation is virtually impossible in terms of what we are looking at here: changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere," added Santer, who has worked on climate fingerprinting for more than 30 years. "This research puts to rest incorrect claims that we don't need to treat climate change seriously because it is all natural."

The research was motivated by earlier work by Suki Manabe and Richard Wetherald, who in 1967 used a simple climate model to study how CO2 from fossil fuel burning might change atmospheric temperature. Their modeling found a very distinctive feature: an increase in CO2 levels led to more trapping of heat in the troposphere (the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere) and less heat escaping higher up into the stratosphere (the layer above the troposphere), thus warming the troposphere and cooling the stratosphere. This prediction of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling in response to increasing CO2 has been confirmed many times by more complex models and verified by comparing model results with global-mean atmospheric temperature observations from weather balloons and satellites.

Although these earlier studies considered global-mean temperature changes in the middle and upper stratosphere, roughly 25 to 50 kilometers above Earth's surface, they did not look at detailed patterns of climate change in this layer. This region can be better studied now because of improved simulations and satellite data. The new research is the first to search for human-caused climate change patterns -- also called "fingerprints" -- in the middle and upper stratosphere.

"The human fingerprints in temperature changes in the mid to upper stratosphere due to CO2 increases are truly exceptional because they are so large and so different from temperature changes there due to internal variability and natural external forcing. These unique fingerprints make it possible to detect the human impact on climate change due to CO2 in a short period of time (~10 -- 15 years) with high confidence," stated co-author Qiang Fu, a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington.

"The world has been reeling under climate change, so being as confident as possible of the role of carbon dioxide is critical," said co-author Susan Solomon, Martin Professor of Environmental Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "The fact that observations show not only a warming troposphere but also a strongly cooling upper stratosphere is unique tell-tale evidence that nails the dominant role of carbon dioxide in climate change and greatly increases confidence."

Santer said that although it is intellectually gratifying to be able to extend fingerprinting higher up into the atmosphere to test the prediction by Manabe and Wetherald, it is also deeply concerning.

"As someone who tries to understand the kind of world that future generations are going to inhabit, these results make me very worried. We are fundamentally changing the thermal structure of Earth's atmosphere, and there is no joy in recognizing that," Santer said.

"This study shows that the real world has changed in a way that simply cannot be explained by natural causes," Santer added. "We now face important decisions, in the United States and globally, on what to do about climate change. I hope those decisions are based on our best scientific understanding of the reality and seriousness of human effects on climate."

Funding for the study was provided by National Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, and the Francis E. Fowler IV Center for Ocean and Climate at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

UN warns heat records could be broken as chance of El Niño rises

Agence France-Presse

There is estimated 60% chance event will develop by end of July, and 80% chance of it by end of September

Severe droughts can occur in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia during an El Niño pattern. Photograph: Outback Australia/Alamy

The chance of an El Niño weather phenomenon developing in the coming months has risen, the United Nations has said, warning that it could fuel higher global temperatures and possibly new heat records.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday that it now estimated there was a 60% chance that El Niño would develop by the end of July, and an 80% chance it would do so by the end of September.

“This will change the weather and climate patterns worldwide,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the head of the WMO’s regional climate prediction services division, told reporters in Geneva.

El Niño, which is a naturally occurring climate pattern typically associated with increased heat worldwide, as well as drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains elsewhere, last occurred in 2018-19.

Since 2020 though, the world has been hit with an exceptionally long La Niña – El Niño’s cooling opposite – which ended earlier this year, giving way to the current neutral conditions.

And yet, the UN has said the last eight years were the warmest ever recorded, despite La Niña’s cooling effect stretching over nearly half that period. Without that weather phenomenon, the warming situation could have been even worse.

La Niña “acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase”, the WMO chief, Petteri Taalas, said in a statement. Now, he said, “the world should prepare for the development of El Niño.”

The expected arrival of the warming climate pattern, he said, “will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records”.

At this stage, there is no indication of the strength or duration of the looming El Niño. The last one was considered very weak, but the one before that, between 2014 and 2016, was considered among the strongest ever, with dire consequences.

The WMO pointed out that 2016 was “the warmest year on record because of the “double whammy” of a very powerful El Niño event and human-induced warming from greenhouse gases”.

Since the El Niño effect on global temperatures usually plays out the year after it emerges, the impact would probably be most apparent in 2024, it said.

“We are expecting in the coming two years to have a serious increase in the global temperatures,” Okia said.

Taalas highlighted that the expected arrival of El Niño could have some positive effects, pointing out that it “might bring respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Niña-related impacts”.

There has been a run of La Niña events in the past three years

Surface temperature anomalies and El Niño/La Niña events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region)

Guardian graphic. Source: Noaa. Note: an El Niño phase is five consecutive three-month running mean anomalies above the threshold of +0.5C in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean. The threshold for a La Niña phase is -0.5C or below. Due to warming in the region, multiple centred 30-year base periods are used

But it “could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events” he said, stressing the need for effective early warning systems “to keep people safe”.

No two El Niño events were the same and their effects depended, in part, on the time of year, WMO said, adding that it and national meteorological services would be closely monitoring developments.

The climate pattern occurs on average every two to seven years, and usually lasts nine to 12 months. It is typically associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Increased rainfall is usually seen in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while severe droughts can occur over Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.

During summer in the northern hemisphere, El Niño’s warm water could also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, while hindering hurricane formations in the Atlantic basin, the WMO said.

How Climate Technology Can Bolster National Climate Plans

UNFCCC NEWS

Credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan | IWMI

With climate change accelerating and time running out to decarbonize societies and to build resilience, technologies that can significantly shift the needle in terms of slashing greenhouse gas emissions and helping societies to adapt are urgently needed. To this end, the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism met in Songdo, Republic of Korea, last month to discuss the implementation of a new work programme.

The programme is focused on high-potential sectors and high-impact actions for innovation and development and transfer of transformative technologies, ranging from renewable forms of energy to sustainable transport, combined with effective policies.

The members of the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and Climate Technology Centre and Network Advisory Board (CTCN) – the two bodies of the Technology Mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement discussed key examples of technologies that are transferable and scalable and can bolster national climate plans under the Paris Agreement (Nationally Determined Contributions, or “NDCs”). Here are three such examples:

Technology Action for Climate Empowerment in Uganda

Uganda's Action for Rural Women's Empowerment (ARUWE) is pioneering women-led energy cooperatives, utilizing climate technologies including photovoltaic solar panels, charcoal briquettes, and biogas to ensure a just energy transition in the country. The cooperatives, which include members from rural and indigenous communities, use a decentralized and cooperative renewable energy system to produce and distribute reliable and cost-effective energy to households, small businesses, and health centres. With a mission to empower rural women in Uganda and contribute to improving energy generation, access, and utilization from renewable sources, the cooperatives have formed an advocacy network to reach the district and national government to demonstrate the co-benefits of decentralized energy technologies in climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

Triangular cooperation on renewable energy technology transfer in Ghana and Zambia

In an impressive display of triangular cooperation on renewable energy technology transfer in Ghana and Zambia with China and the UN Development Programme UNDP, two African countries have managed to curb energy sector emissions. Triangular cooperation involves Southern-driven partnerships between two or more developing countries supported by a developed country or multilateral organization to implement development cooperation programmes and projects. Since its launch in 2015, the initiative has sought to transfer a suite of renewable energy technologies, including solar, small hydro power, biogas, and biomass cookstoves, to both Ghana and Zambia, and has made significant strides in meeting the national climate targets of both countries under the Paris Agreements. With international support, Zambia expects to be able to reduce emissions by almost 50%, and the Ghanaian government could set the unconditional target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 45% below business-as-usual levels by 2030.

Electric mobility in Cambodia

Cambodia is promoting low-emission transport modes by implementing electric motorcycles and a network of charging and maintenance stations. This technology, along with an incentive programme, is designed to reduce emissions, air pollution, and operating costs, while also providing significant economic benefits. The government, with the support of Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), plans to introduce an electric bus system in Siem Reap at a cost of USD 16 million from 2022 to 2024, and a Green Climate Fund (GCF) project proposal was to roll out 1,000 electric motorcycles in the space of a year. This move aligns with Cambodia's NDC mitigation target of reducing transport sector emissions through low-emission transport modes.

What’s next for the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism?

What should technology experts, practitioners and enthusiasts look out for in the coming months?

• The third and final part of technical dialogues of the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement is set to take place at the 58th session of the Subsidiary Bodies in June 2023 (SB 58), which presents a unique opportunity to enhance collective action on climate technology.

• The TEC will launch its work on water-energy-food nexus by hosting a thematic dialogue at the SB 58 in collaboration with FAO.

• The TEC will convene an event at the SB 58 with financial actors to raise awareness of the results of the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) process in the broader climate change community.

• The TEC and CTCN will co-organize a Technology Mechanism side-event at SB 58 to share outcomes of their work on national systems of innovation.

Technology stakeholders are invited to actively participate in the activities above and add their voices to the collective efforts towards advancing the climate technology agenda under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement.

Use of antibiotics in farming ‘endangering human immune system’

Hannah Devlin

Study suggests antimicrobial used to promote livestock growth breeds bacteria more resistant to our natural defences

Escherichia coli. Unspalsh

A strain of E. coli more likely to evade our immune system’s first line of defence emerged as a result of using colistin as a growth promoter on pigs and chickens. Photograph: Science Photo Library/Alamy

The blanket use of antibiotics in farming has led to the emergence of bacteria that are more resistant to the human immune system, scientists have warned.

The research suggests that the antimicrobial colistin, which was used for decades as a growth promoter on pig and chicken farms in China, resulted in the emergence of E coli strains that are more likely to evade our immune system’s first line of defence.

Although colistin is now banned as a livestock food additive in China and many other countries, the findings sound an alarm over a new and significant threat posed by the overuse of antibiotic drugs.

“This is potentially much more dangerous than resistance to antibiotics,” said Prof Craig MacLean, who led the research at the University of Oxford. “It highlights the danger of indiscriminate use of antimicrobials in agriculture. We’ve accidentally ended up compromising our own immune system to get fatter chickens.”

The findings could also have significant implications for the development of new antibiotic medicines in the same class as colistin, known as antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), which the scientists suggest could pose a particular risk of compromising innate immunity.

AMPs are compounds produced by most living organisms in their innate immune response, which is the first line of defence against infection. Colistin is based on a bacterial AMP – microbes use the compounds to shield themselves against competitors – but is chemically similar to some AMPs produced in the human immune system.

The extensive use of colistin in livestock from the 1980s triggered the emergence and spread of E coli bacteria carrying colistin resistance genes, which eventually prompted widespread restrictions on the drug’s use in agriculture. But the latest study suggests the same genes also allow pathogens to more readily evade AMPs that form a cornerstone of our own immune response.

In the study, E coli carrying a resistance gene, called MCR-1, were exposed to AMPs known to play important roles in innate immunity in chickens, pigs, and humans. The bacteria were also tested for their susceptibility to human blood serum.

The scientists found that E coli carrying the MCR-1 gene were at least twice as resistant to being killed by human serum. On average, the gene increased resistance to human and animal AMPs by 62% compared with bacteria that lacked the gene. The study, published in the journal eLife, also showed that the resistant E coli was twice as likely to kill moth larvae that were injected with the infection, compared with the control E coli strain.

MacLean said it was not possible to estimate how this might translate into real-world consequences, such as the risk of an E coli infection leading to sepsis and death. And the prevalence of these strains of E coli have dropped steeply since China banned the use of colistin as a growth promoter, suggesting that these genes carry other “fitness disadvantages” for the pathogens. However, the findings highlight a fundamental risk that has not yet been extensively considered.

“The danger is that if bacteria evolve resistance to [AMP-based drugs], it could also make bacteria resistant to one of the pillars of our immune system,” said MacLean.

Antimicrobial resistance poses a dire global threat – the UN has warned that as many as 10 million people a year could be dying by 2050 as a result of superbugs – and so the need for new antibiotics is pressing. There is growing interest in the potential of AMPs as drugs, and some of those in development include drugs based on human AMPs.

MacLean and colleagues are not calling for the development of such drugs to be put on hold, but say extremely careful risk assessments of the likelihood of resistance emerging and the potential consequences are required. “For AMPs, there are potentially very serious negative consequences,” he said.

Dr Jessica Blair, of the University of Birmingham, who was not involved in the study, said: “Antimicrobial peptides, including colistin, have been heralded as a potential part of the solution to the rise of multidrug-resistant infections. This study, however, suggests that resistance to these antimicrobials may have unintended consequences on the ability of pathogens to cause infection and survive within the host.”

Dr George Tegos, of Mohawk Valley Health System in New York, said that broad conclusions about the potential risks of AMPs could not be drawn from a single study, but added that the findings “raise concerns that are reasonable and make sense”.

Cóilín Nunan, an adviser to the Alliance to Save Our Antibiotics, who was not involved in the study, said: “This new study shows that colistin resistance is probably even more dangerous than previously thought … It is also remarkable that the British government is still opposed to banning preventative mass medication of intensively farmed animals with antibiotics, even though the EU banned such use over a year ago.”

Unsafe water causes kidney, liver damage, cancer —Researcher, Akinsemolu

SEGUN KASALI speaks with an Institute of Advanced Studies (Ias) Vanguard Fellow, Dr Adenike Akinsemolu, on implications of unsafe water consumption.

Dr. Adenike A. Akinsemolu

What are the dangers and hazards of drinking unsafe and unclean water?

As an environmentalist with a decade of experience, researching in the Ilaje coastal region of Nigeria, I can confidently say that drinking unsafe and unclean water poses significant dangers and hazards to human health. The presence of harmful bacteria and viruses in such water can lead to various waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid fever, dysentery and hepatitis A.

In fact, diarrheal diseases caused by unsafe water and poor sanitation are among the leading causes of death globally, with 1.6 million deaths recorded in 2017 alone. To put this into perspective, this is more than all deaths from intentional injuries combined in the same year, including suicide, homicide, conflict and terrorism. In Nigeria, about 117,000 children die annually due to poor water quality and sanitation.

Additionally, my research work has shown that exposure to contaminated water can also have adverse effects on reproductive health. Heavy metals such as lead and cadmium, which are present in high levels in the water in the Ilaje coastal region can interfere with the reproductive system.

Pregnant women who are exposed to lead may be at a higher risk of giving birth prematurely, having low-birth-weight infants and experiencing developmental delays in their children. The accumulation of heavy metals in the body can also cause chronic health problems such as kidney damage, liver damage and cancer. Urgent action is needed to address these issues and provide access to safe and clean water for communities in the region.

Therefore, it is crucial to raise awareness on the importance of clean water and sanitation and promote sustainable water management practices to ensure the availability and accessibility of safe water for all. Providing clean and safe water to communities is not only a human right but also essential to promote health, sustainable development and economic growth.

What are the various health conditions caused by waterborne diseases?

As previously mentioned, waterborne diseases significantly threaten human health and can lead to severe health complications, including dehydration, diarrhoea, nausea, vomiting, and even death. In Nigeria, these diseases are responsible for approximately 70 percent of all illnesses, causing over 60,000 deaths annually, with children under five being the most vulnerable due to their weaker immune systems. The World Health Organisation (WHO) reports that approximately 485,000 people die each year from diarrheal diseases alone, with cholera and typhoid fever also having high morbidity rates and causing severe health complications.

Additionally, consuming unsafe water can lead to other health problems such as skin rashes, eye and parasitic infections. In my research work in the Ilaje coastal region, I have observed a high prevalence of waterborne diseases and other health conditions among communities due to the consumption of unsafe water.

Providing clean and safe water to communities is crucial in reducing the burden of waterborne diseases and improving the health and wellbeing of individuals, particularly in developing countries where access to clean water and sanitation is limited. Therefore, prioritising water sanitation and hygiene interventions is crucial to ensure the availability and accessibility of safe water for all. The impact of waterborne diseases on human health and wellbeing cannot be overstated and it is our collective responsibility to take action to ensure the provision of clean water to everyone.

How does the global water crisis disproportionately affect marginalised communities and exacerbate existing inequalities?

The global water crisis disproportionately affects marginalised communities and exacerbates existing inequalities in several ways. Firstly, marginalised communities such as low-income families, rural communities, and indigenous populations often lack access to clean and safe water due to inadequate infrastructure, poverty, and discrimination. According to the United Nations, approximately 2.2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water, with marginalised communities being the most affected.

Secondly, the water crisis affects women and girls disproportionately, as they are often responsible for water collection in many communities. The lack of access to clean and safe water puts women and girls at risk of sexual violence and harassment during their daily water collection activities.

Thirdly, the water crisis exacerbates existing health inequalities, as marginalised communities are more vulnerable to waterborne diseases due to their limited access to clean water and sanitation facilities. This results in higher morbidity and mortality rates among these communities, leading to a further widening of health inequalities.

Finally, the water crisis also exacerbates economic inequalities, as access to clean and safe water is essential for economic development and growth. The lack of access to water can limit the potential for economic activities such as agriculture which are essential for the livelihoods of many marginalised communities.

The global water crisis has a disproportionate impact on marginalised communities, exacerbating existing inequalities in access to water, health outcomes, and economic development. It is essential to prioritize the provision of clean and safe water to these communities and address the systemic inequalities that perpetuate the water crisis.

How can we ensure that water is recognised as a fundamental human right and protected as a public good rather than have it treated as a commodity to be privatised and sold for profit?

Water is a fundamental human right essential for the survival, health and dignity of all people. Therefore, it should be recognised as such and protected as a public good. This means that access to clean and safe water should be ensured for everyone without discrimination, regardless of their ability to pay. However, the reality is that water is often treated as a commodity that can be privatised and sold for profit, which can lead to inequalities in access to water, particularly for marginalised communities.

To ensure that water is recognsed as a fundamental human right and protected as a public good, there are several steps that can be taken. First, there needs to be increased awareness and advocacy around the importance of water as a human right and the negative impacts of privatisation on access to water. This can be achieved through education and outreach campaigns, as well as advocacy efforts at the local, national, and international levels.

Second, there need to be strong legal frameworks and policies in place to protect water as a public good. These include laws and regulations that ensure that access to water is equitable, affordable and of high quality and that prevent water resources from being privatised or exploited for profit. Governments must also be held accountable for upholding these laws and policies.

Third, investment in water infrastructure and services must be increased, particularly in underserved and marginalised communities. This includes expanding access to pipe water systems, improving water treatment and sanitation facilities and increasing the availability of water storage and distribution systems.

Ensuring that water is recognised as a fundamental human right and protected as a public good requires a multi-faceted approach that includes education and awareness-raising, strong legal frameworks and policies and increased investment in water infrastructure and services. We must prioritise these efforts to ensure that everyone has access to clean and safe water, regardless of their economic status or social standing.

Avian flu outbreak in the Gambia threatens birds on East Atlantic Flyway

Anna Turns

Hundreds of dead birds found in past three weeks as conservationists call for international funding to help stop the disease spreading on migration routes

Collecting birds killed by avian flu in the Gambia. The outbreak could affect birds from Africa to Europe and the UK. Photograph: Sacha Dench/Conservation Without Borders

An outbreak of avian influenza in seabirds in the Gambia could affect vast numbers of birds migrating along the East Atlantic Flyway, unless international funding is secured, warn conservationists.

Teams from the West African Bird Study Association (Wabsa), the Gambia’s Department of Parks and Wildlife Management, and UK-based NGO Conservation Without Borders have buried hundreds of dead birds over the past three weeks, including some ringed birds from Europe.

The Gambia’s Ministry of Agriculture confirmed the H5N1 outbreak on 4 April after analysing samples from Tanji bird reserve, about 12 miles from the capital, Banjul. The East Atlantic Flyway links bird migration routes from the Arctic Circle to southern Africa via western Europe.

“It’s migration season, so these outbreaks threaten birds and poultry all the way from Africa to Europe and the UK,” said Sacha Dench, founder of Conservation Without Borders and an ambassador for the UN’s Convention on Migratory Species, who saw more than 500 dead seabirds at two sites last week at the Tanji bird reserve.

“The local conservation organisation [Wabsa] is expected to respond yet can’t even afford the £24 boat fuel to go to Bijol Islands,” Dench said. “The cost of it spreading is so much more than simply surveillance and control by good field workers.”

Many low- to-middle-income countries have limited conservation funds, she added. “Most rely on international funding and some money from tourism to pay for the services of local park staff. But when an emergency like bird flu hits, the government has priorities like chicken being important protein for local people.

“Rapid reaction is critical. So having staff on the ground with the resources that enable them to act is essential,” said Dench, who secured temporary funds for the boat fuel. She has written to ask the UK government to help fund the surveillance and disposal of infected birds, a critical matter for the government at a time when the UK’s bird flu restrictions on free-range poultry are only just being lifted.

“Investing in monitoring activities in developing countries would save a lot of birds we love, and could save [the poultry farming] industry a lot of money,” said Dench, who hopes that other national governments could also support the Gambia’s avian flu recovery efforts. “This is more than conservation, this is management of a global pandemic, and we should at least be offering assistance to those with less resources on the migration flyways that the UK sits right at the centre of.”

Fagimba Camara, head of the research unit at Wabsa, who has been monitoring the Bijol Islands and digging holes in the sand to bury dead birds, says that minimising spread of infection is a “big task”.

“This is the most important place for migratory species in the Gambia because we record so many in large numbers, including royal terns, Caspian terns, ruddy turnstones and osprey, which fly from Scotland and other parts of Europe for their wintering time.” At the beginning of the month, Camara found 246 dead birds. This week, his team found 107, mainly royal terns. “At least we are seeing the number of affected birds decreasing [on Bijol Islands],” he said, although numbers are increasing elsewhere in the Gambia.

Awa Joof, research officer for Wabsa, said: “The most difficult thing to do is dig bird graves, so it is definitely so sad for me to see birds dying in such large numbers.”

Campaigners urge action over carbon footprint of disposable nappies

James Hockaday

Reusables have 25% less global heating potential, finds UK government report, but overall picture is mixed

Disposable nappies are one of the biggest single contributors to plastic waste worldwide. Photograph: Alamy

Environmental campaigners are calling on the UK government to take action after new analysis found a significant difference between the carbon footprints of washable and disposable nappies.

Reusable nappies have 25% less global heating potential compared with single-use nappies, according to a report commissioned by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra).

The environmental impact of production was shown to be nearly nine times greater for single-use nappies, and nearly 10 times greater when it came to their disposal.

However, the report paints a mixed picture, with reusable nappies given a worse impact score for 11 of 18 categories – mainly associated with water and electricity usage when washing and drying.

Disposable nappies are one of the biggest single contributors to plastic waste worldwide, but a 2005 life cycle analysis declared there was “little or no difference between the environmental impact of reusable and disposable nappies”.

This resulted in a lack of action from policymakers, according to campaigners, who say the government has a responsibility to make it easier for parents to switch to reusables.

“We’ve seen the British government be really bold on lots of stuff to do with single-use plastic,” said Elisabeth Whitebread of the Nappy Alliance campaign group. “We’ve had the first plastic packaging tax in the world, we’ve recently seen them banning single-use plastic cutlery and plates, but by the number of items, as well as the weight and volume, nappies represent a much greater contribution to single-use plastic waste.

“This clearly needs policy initiative but also awareness raising – so many people don’t even think about nappies as a single-use plastic.”

Hilary Vick, a founder of the washable nappy service Nappy Ever After, added: “The playing field is unequal because parents and carers have the task and the expense of washing nappies and the time it takes, and yet the disposal of nappies is free. They’re readily available in supermarkets, which makes it seem normal – governments and local authorities have a responsibility to go against those norms.”

While Defra’s report could be a significant step forward for the reusable industry, single-use nappies were only found to leave a worse impact in seven of the categories, including global heating potential, land use, fossil resource scarcity and water use in manufacturing. But campaigners say these effects are particularly critical in light of the climate crisis.

Reusable nappies scored worse in areas including marine eutrophication, freshwater ecotoxicity, mineral resource scarcity, marine ecotoxicity and water consumption. The main factors behind their effects are water, detergent and electricity use when washing and drying nappies, and flushing faeces.

The report says parents can lessen their impact by using energy-efficient washing machines, air drying instead of tumble drying and passing nappies to a second child.

The Absorbent Hygiene Product Manufacturers Association (AHPMA) pointed to a 28% reduction in the global heating potential of disposables since 2005, as improved technology had led to smaller nappies and fewer materials being used in production – the reduction for reusables was 38.5%

The industry body suggested the difference in CO2 impact set out in the latest report was not as great as it might appear at first glance. It pointed to the report’s comparison of 2.5 years in disposable nappies to 6.4 return car journeys from London to Nottingham (1,622 miles), compared with 4.8 journeys (1,223 miles) for reusables – amounting to a difference of 400 miles.

“This should reassure parents and carers that both options represent responsible choices for babies, as they also consider performance, skin health benefits, and convenience when deciding on the best nappy option based on their individual family needs and lifestyles,” the AHPMA added.

A Defra spokesperson said: “We are committed to maximising resources and minimising waste, and are reviewing the findings of this analysis.”

Toxic PFAS chemicals used in packaging can end up in food, study finds

Compostable packaging is popular for environmental reasons, but it can be treated with ‘forever chemicals’ linked to health problems

A group of toxic PFAS chemicals that industry has claimed is safe to use in food packaging are concerning and present a health threat because they can break off and end up in food and drinks, a new peer-reviewed study finds.

Photo by Clair on Unsplash

The subgroup of PFAS, called “fluorotelomers”, have been billed as a safe replacement for a first generation of PFAS compounds now largely phased out of production in the US, Canada and the EU because of their high toxicity.

But the Guardian revealed in 2021 how chemical manufacturers had hid research showing that fluorotelomers may also be highly toxic, and the new study highlights how the compounds can move from packaging into food. Researchers say the paper highlights the need to ban the use of PFAS in food packaging.

“The continued use of PFAS in food packaging should be questioned given opportunities for the chemicals’ release and exposure,” the study’s authors wrote.

PFAS, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of about 14,000 chemicals often used to make products resistant to water, stains and heat. They are called “forever chemicals” because they do not naturally break down, and they are linked to cancer, liver problems, thyroid issues, birth defects, kidney disease, decreased immunity and other serious health problems.

For decades, the chemicals have been added to paper wrappers, bags, plates, cups and other food packaging to help repel grease and water that would otherwise deteriorate the products. The chemicals are also added to some plastic food packaging as a barrier to prevent spoilage, and are especially common in the type of molded fiber bowls often marketed as “green” and “compostable”.

The US Food and Drug Administration in 2020 reached a “voluntary agreement” with some packaging producers to a five-year phaseout of 6:2 FTOH, a fluorotelomer regularly used in food packaging, after the agency learned that chemical manufacturers had hid evidence of its toxicity.

The University of Toronto study coauthor Miriam Diamond said that researchers suspect that 6:2 FTOH and similar compounds are no longer being added to food packaging, but the chemicals’ presence may be a byproduct of the use of another group of PFAS called “fluoropolymers”.

Industry has claimed fluoropolymers do not move from food packaging into food because they are larger than most other PFAS. But the large structure can contain 6:2 FTOH, which Diamond said may break off from the fluoropolymer after the chemical is added to food packaging.

That process could create a loophole. While companies may no longer add 6:2 FTOH to food packaging and are in compliance with the phaseout, the compound still seems to end up in packaging after manufacture.

“They could say: ‘Hey, we’re complying – we’re not adding 6:2 FTOH,’” Diamond said. The process could also help companies skirt Canadian government’s de minimis levels for PFAS.

The study checked 42 pieces of packaging from popular fast-food restaurants that serve burgers, burritos, salads, fries, doughnuts and other common foods, and found PFAS in about half.

Researchers stored eight of the PFAS-contaminated products in a dark, enclosed area for two years and found as much as an 85% drop in PFAS levels, which proved PFAS breaks off from packaging.

“We were really dismayed,” Diamond said of the findings.

She noted the rate at which the chemicals broke off from the packaging was high despite the pieces being kept in benign conditions. Research shows PFAS migrates at much higher rates when in contact with food or liquid that is acidic or served at high temperatures, and the findings suggest a potential health threat, Diamond added.

“You don’t need a whole lot of release to increase the levels of PFAS in food, or to be introduced into the home or environment,” she said. “This shows how mobile the chemicals are.”

The research comes as the Canadian government and other nations work to phase out single-use plastics, which will increase global reliance on “compostable” molded fiber packaging that researchers found contained the highest PFAS levels. However, PFAS are not compostable because they do not degrade, and in 2020 a major sustainable packaging group that certifies products as compostable discontinued its certification of products that contain the chemicals.

The research found the levels at which the chemicals migrated to food and drinks would exceed advisory daily intake limits set for some PFAS compounds by the Canadian government and the EU.

The study’s authors wrote that switching from plastic to PFAS-tainted packaging raises a new set of concerns.

“It would represent a regrettable substitution of trading one harmful option for another,” the authors wrote.

IWD2023: Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu named among 100 Women Creating a Better Africa (100WCBA) by WeForGood.

WeForGood 2023 100 Women Creating a Better Africa (100WCBA)

weforgood

WeForGood, a sustainable solutions and impact design firm list the Green Institute Director, Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu among the 4th annual 100 Women Creating a Better Africa (100WCBA).

In marking the International Women Day 2023 on March 8, 2023, the faces of the women were unveil to want to celebrate and encourage them and hopefully inspire more women to take action.

The list features former presidents, CEOs of organisations as well as students leading change in their communities. The women on this list come from varied backgrounds, ranging from tech to agriculture. There’s also a wide scope in terms of their years of experience and the length of time they’ve been making an impact. Nevertheless, all 100 of them share the common trait which defines the initiative: they’re doing their bit in small and big ways, showing up daily to create a better continent for us and future generations.

Water is life, but it can also be death

Adenike Akinsemolu

Water is life. We all know that. It's the most basic and essential element that we need to survive. But have you ever thought about how water can also be death? In the Ilaje coastal community, Ondo State, Nigeria, I met a mother who knows this all too well. She lost her child to the floods that ravaged their community. Her child, who slept in the same room as her, was swept away by the raging waters. She searched for him frantically, but it was too late. By the time they found him and rushed him to the nearest hospital, he was already gone.

This mother's heartbreak is just one of many stories of how water affects people in different ways. Women and girls, in particular, are vulnerable to the water crisis. I also met a girl who was raped when trying to fetch water. She narrated the story as a hot day in the small coastal village, and the sun beat down mercilessly on the dirt roads. She was on her way to fetch water from the polluted ocean. The water in the ocean was dirty and contaminated, but it was the only source of water for the entire community. The girl had to make the dangerous journey to the ocean every day, walking through the scorching heat.

As she made her way to the ocean, the girl heard footsteps behind her. She turned around to see a man she didn't recognise, but he grabbed her and dragged her off the road before she could react. The girl screamed for help, but no one was around to hear her. The man raped her and left her there, alone and traumatised.

The girl managed to return to the village but was too afraid to tell anyone what had happened. She was ashamed and felt like it was her fault. She continued to make the dangerous journey to the ocean every day, but she was now more afraid than ever before.

The devastating impact of unclean water and lack of access to good health facilities cannot be overstated. Countless lives have been lost to water-borne diseases like cholera, typhoid fever, dysentery, and diarrhoea. Despite SDG Target 6.1's goal of achieving universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all by 2030, the global situation is still dire. As of 2020, only 74% of the world's population had access to a safely managed water source, which means that one in four people still lack safe drinking water access (See Figure 1). Looking at the breakdown of drinking water access globally and across regions and income groups, we can see that in countries with the lowest incomes, less than one-third of the population have safe water. Unfortunately, most of these people live in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting that there is still a long way to go before we can achieve SDG Target 6.1.

Figure 1: Share of the population with access to drinking water

Take the situation in Lekki, Lagos, Nigeria, for example. This affluent area may conjure an image of comfort and luxury with its impressive architecture and beautiful relaxation spots. However, beneath the surface lies a dangerous reality – lack of access to drinkable water. If water is life, then the inability to obtain clean water means that life does not exist in Lekki. Despite their wealth and privilege, Lekki residents are still exposed to water-related diseases resulting from sub-standard and unregulated sources of water supply. The implications on sanitation are dire, with increasing cases of dysentery and diarrhea-induced pathogenic bacteria infections sparking concerns about public health in the area.

The lack of access to clean drinking water is not just a problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. The devastating effects of the water crisis are felt in coastal communities worldwide. Sea-level rise is causing the destruction of vernacular architecture in coastal regions, and water scarcity is affecting everyone, regardless of where we live or our socioeconomic status.

It's a heartbreaking situation highlighting the urgency of addressing the water crisis. We must take action to ensure that everyone has access to clean water and sanitation, no matter where they live or how much money they have. The water crisis affects us all, and we must demand change and make a difference.

This year's theme for World Water Day is Accelerating Change. It's a call to action to address the water crisis. If you think it doesn't affect you, think again. Everyone is affected irrespective of their socio-economic status.

We can all be the change we want to see in our society. There's a story of an ancient hummingbird who did just that. When a forest was on fire, and all the animals were fleeing for their lives, the hummingbird flew to the nearest stream, picked up a drop of water in its beak, and flew back to the forest. It dropped the drop of water on the fire and flew back to the stream to get more. The other animals laughed and asked, "What do you think you're doing? You're not going to put out the fire with those drops of water." The hummingbird replied, "I'm doing what I can."

We can all do what we can to address the water crisis. We can support organisations working to provide access to clean water and sanitation facilities. We can advocate for policies that prioritise water conservation and management. We can reduce our water consumption and use sustainable water practices at home and work. We can educate ourselves and others about the water crisis and the importance of taking action.

But it's not enough to just do what we can as individuals. We need to demand action from our governments, businesses, and communities. We need to boldly state that access to clean water and sanitation is a fundamental human right to be protected.

We can also learn from the experiences and knowledge of indigenous communities who have lived sustainably with water for generations. We can work with them to implement sustainable water management practices that respect and honour their traditional knowledge.

On this World Water Day, let's be the hummingbirds of our society. Let's do what we can to accelerate change, address the water crisis, protect our communities, and create a world where everyone can access clean water and sanitation. Let's honour the stories of those who have suffered due to the lack of access to water and sanitation by taking meaningful action. Together, we can create a world where water is not a source of death and suffering but a source of life and flourishing.

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Reference

Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2021) - "Clean Water and Sanitation". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/clean-water-sanitation' [Online Resource]

Adenike Akinsemolu is a Vanguard Fellow at the Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Birmingham.

The Green Institute Launches the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign to Beat Plastic Pollution

The Green Institute Launches the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign to Beat Plastic Pollution

Ondo City, Nigeria - The Green Institute, a leading non-profit organization dedicated to promoting sustainability and environmental protection, is proud to announce the launch of its latest initiative, the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign. This campaign aims to raise awareness about the dangers of plastic pollution and encourage individuals, communities, and organizations to take action to reduce their plastic waste.

"Plastic pollution is one of the biggest environmental challenges facing our planet today," says Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu, founder of the Green Institute and Vanguard Fellow at the University of Birmingham. "It not only impacts wildlife and ecosystems but also poses a threat to human health and the economy. With the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign, we aim to inspire and empower people to take action to reduce their plastic waste and join us in our mission to beat plastic pollution."

The #OfficiallyGreen Campaign invites individuals and organizations to share their commitment to reducing plastic waste by taking a picture with the #OfficiallyGreen placard and sharing it on their social media channels. Participants are encouraged to make their placards using recycled materials and to share what they are doing in their communities to reduce plastic waste.

"We believe that collective action is the key to solving the plastic pollution crisis," says Dr. Akinsemolu. "By working together and sharing our efforts, we can raise awareness, inspire change, and make a real difference."

The Green Institute is committed to supporting individuals, communities, and organizations in their efforts to reduce plastic waste and protect the environment. Join the #OfficiallyGreen Campaign and make a difference today.

Pioneering Conservationist Champions the Plight of Nigeria’s Hidden Fungal Treasure

YOUNG RESEARCH GROUP, OKEIGBO

Groundbreaking Research and Community Efforts Lead the Charge in Preserving the Igbo Olodumare Forest’s Elusive Termitomyces clypeatus

In the heart of Nigeria's Igbo Olodumare Forest, a remarkable species of mushroom, Termitomyces clypeatus, known locally for its culinary and ecological significance, is receiving unprecedented attention thanks to the efforts of Dr. Adenike Akinsemolu, a dedicated conservation biologist. Akinsemolu's pioneering work, now spotlighted through a significant grant from the Species Fund, aims to safeguard the future of this under-researched species.

Akinsemolu’s journey into the depths of the Igbo Olodumare Forest has unveiled the critical role of Termitomyces clypeatus in local ecosystems and communities. Through an innovative blend of habitat mapping, genetic diversity studies, and community engagement, [Your Name] is leading the charge to ensure the mushroom's survival against the backdrop of environmental challenges.

With a robust action plan, Akinsemolu’s project encompasses extensive field surveys, habitat restoration initiatives, and education programs designed to involve local communities in conservation efforts. "Understanding the genetic makeup and distribution of Termitomyces clypeatus is just the beginning," says Akinsemolu. "Our ultimate goal is to foster a harmonious coexistence between the forest's biodiversity and the people who rely on it."

The project has not only placed Akinsemolu at the forefront of fungal conservation but has also sparked a growing interest among international conservation bodies and the scientific community. As Akinsemolu continues to share findings and insights at global conferences and through publications, the world is taking notice of the importance of fungi in biodiversity conservation strategies.

As Akinsemolu’s work gains momentum, the future looks brighter for the Termitomyces clypeatus and the Igbo Olodumare Forest. Through dedication, research, and community collaboration, Dr. Akinsemolu is charting a new course for conservation, one mushroom at a time.